Wiki contents

Journals

2019 Learning journals
2018 Learning journals
2015 Learning journals
2014 Learning journals
2013 Learning journals

Smartsims Support Centre

Blog updates

Recently Updated

Recent updates

Recently Updated

All updates

Skip to end of metadata
Go to start of metadata

I could feel a lot more pressure on the team as a whole this week, purely due to the real simulations starting up. This meant there was an increased chance we could fall into one of the many hidden traps that are entwined in decision making.

 

Our team ended up doing reasonably well (particularly in the second turnover) in the practise run, and because of this I believed that there was a high possibility I could be affected by the overconfidence trap.

 

The reason I could see this being a problem is because we had just completed a practice of the actual simulation, and because it had gone pretty well, my confidence was at an all-time high. “Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy” (Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1998)). This quote tells me that people are naturally confident with their predictions and because I am even more confident with myself and my team, I had to make sure the overconfidence trap didn’t negatively impact myself and the group.

 

Being overconfident with forecasts could be the downfall of a group in this course. (Hammond, J) states that people are “overly confident about the accuracy of their predictions, most people set too narrow a range of possibilities. If our team were to do this it could have a severely negative impact that would cause us to lose sales, market share, profit etc, which would in turn lead to a loss in SHV. Considering there are 5 other teams we are competing with, it pays to be anything but certain, particularly in the early stages of the simulation.

 

To prevent this from happening it was important for our team to examine the extremes, the low and high ends of the possible range of values, for every decision possible. This helped me and the team avoid being anchored by an initial estimate. It is also important for our team to avoid copying what we did last time because the teams we are up against are completely different and the decisions being made by others are sure to change.

 

 

 

 

References

 

Daudelin, W. M. (1996). Learning from experience through reflection. Organizational Dynamics, 24(3), 36-48.

 

Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1998). The hidden traps in decision making. Harvard Business Review, 76(5), 47+.

3 Comments

  1. Hey Ethan,

    I like how you noticed a potential problem and analysed it to create a potential solution before it came into effect. I would however, suggest going a bit more in depth with your solution and really get into why you are going to take these steps to resolve your issue, which will also help you to make the best possible decision you could for your situation specifically.

    Other than that, I was easily able to follow the main problem you have for this week and you linked your main points to the relevant readings to support this problem giving you a clear picture of what needed to kept in check in terms of decision making for your team.

    Well done and Good luck. 

  2. Hi!

    Much like the person above, I like how you have highlighted the severity of the situation with a potential problem. This line of thinking will help you immensely in the long run! Deeper reflection, however, on the future potential issues could lead to more useful discussion and insight as to how to combat it to get your desired outcome. You have structured your reflection well! I hope that all goes well! 

  3. Hi Ethan,

    I like the way you reflect on your problem with a feasible solution.  I agree that keeping a steady movement is always better than being satisfied with the current situation. I would suggest your improvement in giving details on what you are going to do on this problem from your personal perspective.

    Good luck with the following rollovers!